This was a choppy , low volume day of trade with mixed signals about planting and crop development.
At the close, July corn was up 7 ½ cents, with December up 7 cents. July soybeans closed 18 cents lower with November soybeans down 3 cents. July CBOT wheat was up 21 cents. KC wheat closed 25 cents higher, and Minneapolis wheat closed up 21 cents.
This afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress for corn showed that 72% of the corn is planted nationwide. That compares to 89% last year and the five-year average of 79%. This was much higher than expected. For soybeans the USDA report showed that 50% has been planted, this compares to 73% last year and the five-year average at 55%. For spring wheat, planting advanced to 49% this is 45% behind last year and the five-year average at 88%. I think some spring wheat farmers will now choose to file Prevent Plant rather than plant this late especially if the mid-week rain hits that area again.
Livestock Futures Closed higher on Monday. June Hogs closed up $1.50 at $110.37, June Cattle closed up $1.20 at $132.77 and August Feeders closed up $1.70 at $165.62.
In the outside markets crude oil closed up 37 cents per barrel. The stock market was posted large gains today with the Dow up 650 points on the day.
MIDDAY COMMENTS: 11 A.M.
The corn market has turned higher, with the July contract again very strong, and is making new highs after 10:30 a.m. Wheat is holding onto its early gains, while soybeans are lower, but well off the lows posted at 9 a.m.
Corn and spring wheat drills are rolling in most of South Dakota while North Dakota is staying very wet. I talked with one frustrated customer from North Dakota who had 400 acres out of 2,500 acres planted. I asked when he would get back in the field to plant and he said, “For over half of my acres maybe the spring of 2023.”
With the exception of North Dakota, most farmers are getting the crop planted at a rapid pace with good but not great yield potential for corn in most of the Corn Belt.
The key chart areas I am watching now are if July corn can hold the early low at $7.74 ½. July soybeans need to hold $16.85.
OPENING COMMENTS: 9 A.M.
Corn and soybean prices have turned lower, while wheat futures continue higher. Weather over the weekend was finally dry for much of the northern Corn Belt, and rapid planting progress is being reported.
Around the world stock prices are lower; the grain markets in China are steady to higher with wheat futures on the Matif exchange in Europe being higher. Global stock indexes are all positive.
The USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show corn planting at about 65% complete vs. 79% on average. We came into this spring dry, and now have plenty of moisture; none of the extended forecasts project any major weather problems.
The nearby corn contract closed below the previous four weeks low last week, possibly confirming a seasonal high.
At this time July corn is down 2¢, with December corn trading up 1¢. July soybeans are down 19¢, with November down 8¢, and wheat futures are 7¢ to 17¢ higher.
The outside market is positive for the grain markets so far today, crude oil is up 20¢ per barrel, the U.S. stock market is higher with the Dow now up 290 points, and the U.S. dollar is down 1%.
About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.
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