The headline news out of Ukraine today is viewed as positive for grain prices as the war rages on. At this hour corn prices are 2¢ to 4¢ higher, soybeans are 2¢ to 3¢ higher, and wheat prices are 7¢ to 10¢ higher. The lows from Tuesday are likely to hold unless the USDA reports are wildly bearish.
My early thoughts ahead of these very important reports.
The average price range on the day of the reports for corn and soybeans the last several years has been 4%. This would suggest that you get ready for a 30¢ trading range in corn today and a 67¢ trading range in soybeans.
When you look at the reports and the trade estimates vs. the actual USDA numbers, the trade tends to overestimate corn acres and underestimate soybean acres. The big variable this year will be whether the USDA numbers for corn and soybeans add up to 180 million acres or more.
For the grain stocks I do not see any trend of what the grain stocks are vs. trade expectations other than when prices are really low, we tend to use more, and that will often result in smaller grain stocks and a positive price response. The opposite is true especially for corn that when prices are high, usage comes in less than expected, which is often negative for prices.