This has been a very choppy day, after trading lower in the overnight trade the grain markets rallied back until about 10 a.m. and have now turned lower again. The fundamentals are viewed as positive, but there is fear today that when the federal government raises interest rates, the U.S. and global economy will slow down, reducing consumer demand.
At this time, July corn is down 5 cents, with December down 2 cents, July soybeans are now 5 cents higher with November soybeans down 2 cents. July CBOT wheat is 8 cents lower, KC wheat is down 7 and Minneapolis wheat is now down 7 cents.
Crude oil was down over $1.00 per barrel early today and the stock market is now higher after a lower start. In international price terms, corn and soybeans are trading at all time highs due to the combination of high futures price and the strong U.S. dollar.
Farmers in North Dakota are telling me that if it stops raining today, that it will be two weeks until they can get in the field. I look for less spring wheat than earlier forecasts, and possibly 2 million acres prevent plant in just North Dakota alone.
OPENING COMMENTS: 9 A.M.
Too wet and too dry, that is the problem on two continents today. The U.S. Corn Belt is staying cold and wet, delaying planting and possibly preventing more acres being planted.
In Brazil, it is staying too dry and private analysts are taking the projected size of the double crop corn down by another 150 million bushels this week.
In the early grain trade, after starting out lower July, corn is now up 6 cents, July soybeans are trading 8 cents higher and wheat futures are 1 to 6 cents higher.
The USDA Oilseed Crush report yesterday was right in line with trade estimates, showing that 192.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed last month, with soybean oil stocks reported at 2.434 billion pounds. There are no signs of price rationing yet, and after plunging lower yesterday soybean oil is higher in the early trade.
The USDA Crop Progress report showed slower than expected corn planting and the lowest hard red winter wheat ratings ever. The extended forecasts are favorable with the Corn Belt likely to dry out, and rain hit in the dry southern Plains.
In the outside markets, crude oil is down $1.40 per barrel, the U.S. stock market is slightly lower and livestock futures steady to higher.
About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.
