Thursday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which included its first projections for the 2022/2023 marketing year, showed lower global wheat supplies and consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks.
2021/2022 WORLD CROP PRODUCTION
On Thursday, the USDA pegged the 2021 Brazilian soybean production at 125.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s estimate last month of 125.0 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 124.5 mmt.
For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 116.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 113.9 mmt. and the USDA’s April estimate of 116.0.0 mmt.
For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 42.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s April estimate of 43.5 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 42.8 mmt.
Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is pegged at 53.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 53.0 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 52.1 mmt.
2021/2022 U.S. Ending Stocks
For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2021-22 projected ending stocks at 1.440 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.404 billion bushels and the April estimate of 1.44 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 235 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 222 million bushels today. In April, the USDA’s estimate was 260 million.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 655 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 681 million and compared with the April estimate of 678 million bushels.
2022/2023 U.S. Ending Stocks
For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2022-23 projected ending stocks at 1.360 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.305 billion bushels. USDA did not have an estimate in April.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 310 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 319 million bushels today.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 619 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 655 million.
2021/2022 World Ending Stocks
On Thursday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 309.4 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 303.7 mmt. and the USDA’s April estimate of 305.5 mmt.
For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 85.2 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 89.0 mmt. and the USDA’s April estimate of 89.6 mmt.
For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 279.7 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 278.3 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 278.4 mmt.
2022/2023 World Ending Stocks
On Thursday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 305.1 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 295.6 mmt. USDA did not have an estimate in April.
For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 99.6 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 98.0 mmt.
For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 267.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 271.6 mmt.
Trade Reaction
“Global balance sheets for corn and wheat continue to tighten. These projections suggest the world will be facing relatively high food prices for an extended period,” says Jake Hanley of Teucrium Funds. “The USDA is expecting a build in global soybean stocks in ’22-’23. We need South American weather to cooperate next year!
“Note that the USDA lowered domestic corn yields vs. the trendline figure from the February Outlook report, pointing to poor weather and slow planting. I’m treating this number cautiously. Directionally, it’s the right move, but they may have adjusted too low too soon … time will tell,” says Hanley.
